Expected Spins
Expected spins are calculated as 1 / perSpinRate. This is an average over many repeated sessions,
not a promise that a player will hit by that number.
Transparent math
Methodology
The calculator starts with listed family rates, then applies the options you enter. The result is useful for spin planning and sanity checks, but it is not a promise that a roll will hit by a specific number.
Rate Reference
Calculations use the historical Update 3 rarity-rate baseline. The recorded family and perk review on 2026-08-04 referenced Update 4; it did not establish a replacement rarity-rate table. The calculator does not present these numeric inputs as verified current game rates.
Core Formula
Chance to hit at least once after n spins:
1 - (1 - perSpinRate) ^ n Chance to miss every spin:
(1 - perSpinRate) ^ n Confidence Thresholds
To find spins needed for 50%, 75%, 90%, or 95% confidence, the planner solves:
ceil(log(1 - confidence) / log(1 - perSpinRate)) Specific Family Rates
When targeting one family, the planner divides the rarity pool equally across families in that rarity. Exact per-family weights are not published in one consistent public table, so named-family rates should be treated as planning estimates.
2x Rate Mode
2x mode doubles the Legendary and Mythical rarity pools and reduces Common by the same total amount. Rare and Epic stay unchanged.
Prestige Bonus
Prestige adds 0.0050% to the Legendary family pool per Prestige
level, up to the model cap of 5. That bonus is added after 2x mode, so the Prestige
part is not doubled.
Epic+ Pity
The pity checkpoint is shown separately. After 400 spins without an Epic, Legendary, or
Mythical family, the next checkpoint is treated as Epic+. Public references list the Legendary chance at that
checkpoint as 5.000%.
The displayed checkpoint chance is conditional on reaching it without a natural Epic+ resetting the counter. At progress 399 the model has one roll left; at progress 0 there are 399 natural rolls before the checkpoint. The headline probability, expected spins and budget thresholds exclude all pity effects. Changing pity progress will not change those independent-spin results. An Epic+ checkpoint does not guarantee a Legendary family.
Limits To Keep In Mind
The main hit chance assumes repeated spins at the same listed rate. The pity checkpoint, storage choices, trades, and newly changed family rates can make a player session differ from the headline estimate. Recheck the data date before planning a large spin budget.
Data Sources
Rates, family references, and tier comparisons were last checked on 2026-08-04.